Estimation Tesla Model 3 pricing EU/NL

We all would like to know how the Tesla Model 3 will be priced. Based on a excel sheet made by Dave Tuttle, Research Fellow at The University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute, I created one for the Netherlands, which I think is close to the EU ones, but you can adjust yourself by downloading the excel. Of course, it is all speculation, but nice to do :). Update Mar, 14: some options were included in the base prices; corrected now.

The way of working by Dave was to take the current pricing differences between all versions of the Model S, and start with a $35.000 base price for the Model 3, with a 55kWh battery, and then adding subsequently all features and larger battery sizes. So the major assumptions are the base version (35k$ and 55kWh), and then the addition based on a comparison with the Model S pricing, with some adjustments.

I took the ratio between the Model S 60kWh $ vs € pricing and applied that ratio to the 35k$ base price. I also changed the range from NEDC to EPA, and all in km (estimation).

All in all these are major uncertain predictions, but nevertheless nice to think about, and in due time to see how close they are. Let me know your thoughts!

So here are the results ex VAT (BTW):

Here are the results including 21% VAT (BTW):

Here are the original (known) Model S prices in the NL (incl 21% VAT)

11 thoughts on “Estimation Tesla Model 3 pricing EU/NL”

The 55 to 70 kWh upgrade costs €11’000,= in this calculation, which is the same as the difference between the 75 and 90 kWh version of the Model S. The difference between the 60 and the 75 kWh version is only €7’500,=, but that’s probably because is it is a software update.
The 2170 battery cells are supposed to be 30% cheaper than the 18650 cells. I’d be disappointed if that price difference isn’t reflected in the price of the battery upgrades for the Model 3.
I thought I remember Elon Musk said at one point that the dual motor option would be cheaper for the Model 3, but I’d have to find that quote.

Je haalt als didacticus een groot aantal dolenthousiaste T3-adepten weer bij de les, het is trouwens ook in overeenstemming met de analyse van Mark Spiegel.
Het wordt weer pijnlijk duidelijk, zeker omdat normaal gesproken in eerste instantie de goedkopere uitvoeringen niet worden geleverd, dat deze T3 ook weer een voertuig is dat alleen bestaansrecht heeft als aan het aan de riante subsidiekraan voor zakelijk vervoer kan hangen.

Ad van der Meer says:

March 7, 2017 at 13:57

De instapprijs van de Model 3 ligt, in dit gedachte-experiment, op exact hetzelfde niveau als de BMW 330e en de 330i. Als we Elon Musk mogen geloven liggen ook de prestaties op hetzelfde niveau en zijn het dus vergelijkbare producten. Als je dan realiseert dat een elektrische auto per km goedkoper is dan een benzineauto, dan concurreert de Model 3 zelfs met de 320i.
Dit zijn echter nog speculaties, dus laten we ons nog niet rijk rekenen.

Reply

Hi Maarten,

Thanks for posting this. Wanted to do created this sheet as well, but it’s great you just posted it. Looking forward to downloading the Spreadsheet 🙂

Just noticed the range is noted as 300 km EPA, but it should be (min) 215 mi or 345 km, as was communicated at the unveiling of the Model 3.

Maarten, I have some feedback on the spreadsheets:

I see that a base Model 3 has a range of 300 miles. If a Model 3 that costs half of a Model S has 20 mi more range, very little people would buy it. That would affect profits and therefore is very unlikely to happen.

The epa2nedc calculation isn’t very accurate, even for a (base) Model S.
At 60 kWh the calculated range is 280 mi, while the Tesla website mentions 220 miles.
How about reversing the calculations the get a more realistic view of EPA kilometers? Instead of NEDC -> 0,7 -> EPA, you could do EPA -> 1,xx -> EPA (in km)? The EPA rating is way more realistic than the NEDC.

Another method is to use 6 km/kWh to calculate the range of Model S (an estimated EPA rating). For Model 3 the optimised cell chemistry and reduced weight would probably translate to 6,5 to 7 km/kWh. Using 6,5 km/kWh i get 220 mi/ 355 km estimated range for a base Model 3.

Steinbuch says:

March 14, 2017 at 07:44

dear sef, all numbers above are in km. Not miles. Model S 60kWh is 280 km, not miles, I think compatible with 220 miles. I agree with the other method but not with the numbers: nobody is able to drive 6 km/kWh, which would be 167 Wh/km. Normally everybody is driving 200-220 Wh/km. So 4,5-5,0 km/kWh. I pushed that down to 180-190 for the Model 3. Not unrealistic I think?

Reply
- Sef says:
  
  March 14, 2017 at 10:52
  
  Dear Maarten,
  I misinterpreted the EPA numbers, sorry. Going from km to miles is always confusing. (no wonder a satellite crashed because of it)
  I hope to see 180-190 Wh/km come to reality, these numbers seem realistic indeed. A range of about 300km is needed to overcome the range anxiety first time EV owners will have.